PAP can Win the Next General Election Easily if…

[Pic Credit: TODAY]

Naturally following the death of Lee Kuan Yew, the topic among my friends and myself turned to the political question – What next for the PAP? After some deliberations from the zany to the insightful, we reached or came to the following conclusion - the next election is there for the taking if the following happens:

1) Lee Hsien Loong resigns immediately or soon

2) One of his deputies takes over, preferably Tharman

3) The new PM introduces a slew of measures that placates the public

4) Elections are called within 3-5 months

Now before you think I’ve gone bonkers, let me explain each of these:

1) Lee Hsien Loong

A stoic Lee Hsien Loong delivers a eulogy to his father at the Mandai Crematorium. Sorrow and a concern for his battle with cancer are very understandable reasons for stepping down. (Photo: PMO)

There may have been a huge outpouring of grief for his father, but the PM is not his father. In my opinion and I’m sure this is shared by many, he is responsible for many of the troubling issues that we now face, from ever-rising CPF Minimum Sums, soaring HDB prices, transport fee hikes, influx of FTs at Singaporeans expense, health-care, education, flooding etc. Like it or not, he’s in charge and when things go wrong and they certainly have, he’s the face of blame. The Prime Minister takes credit for success, but when failure comes, it’s the PM that has to shoulder it.

But what if he resigned? He comes out to say, he’s very much grief stricken and the recent episode of his cancer recurring has taken a toll. He feels he’s done his best and now wants to focus on his family. I doubt few will begrudge him, and there will be a lot of sympathy for him as a person. Some of the anger will dissipate and by removing himself from the picture totally, affixing blame will be harder or temporarily forgotten.

2) Tharman or Teo Chee Hian as a Stop Gap/Interim PM.

I know there has been talk of waiting until after the next elections to designate a successor and handover to him, By why not now, and why not 1 of his deputies? To claim that either is unsuitable is a bit ridiculous. Both have been Ministers for a long time and routinely cover for the PM when he’s away or unable to perform his duties. And unlike other countries, he has 2 deputies, surely 1 of them is able to perform the job?

Neither has to do the job for a long period, they can lead the party to the next GE and serve 1 term and thereafter step down after naming a successor agreeable to the party. Tharman in particular as Finance Minister has not earned the ire or anger of the public. Many see him as an efficient Minister. Moreover naming him as PM, will almost surely win the votes of a large number of Indian and even Malay voters. A statement is made that meritocracy succeeds and that anyone irrespective of race can ascend to the top job.

3) Changes in Policy and Goodies Galore

The PM might hold this view and have the data to show, but I've yet to find one person who agrees with him, except of course, a PAP fanboy.

A new man is no longer bound to uphold or toe the previous line. He can be his own man. If he for example announces there will be a cap on the influx of immigrants and FTs, this is a sure vote winner. If he announces that measures will be taken to bring down HDB prices and keep to the original ideals of making housing affordable – this will put him in good stead. And a slew of goodies – reducing transport and health costs or a greater share of the national wealth. Many would be willing to give him a shot.

4) Earlier Elections

As a new PM, and making the right noises, he will enjoy a ‘honeymoon period.’ This would be ideal to call for elections, especially if he plays on LKY’s passing, the sympathy afforded and the fact PM Lee graciously gave up power. Add in the SEA Games in June and the SG50 celebrations in August, an election before September can easily swing a lot of votes to the PAP column. Play up the LKY legacy, the new direction taken but keeping true to the core beliefs of LKY, an acknowledgement of past mistakes and a promise to ensure no one is left behind and that Singaporeans will be placed first over anyone else. I think many neutrals may just decide to give the PAP another chance and perhaps they might win over some of the votes lost in 2011. Attaining 66% or more, of the votes is not out of the question anymore.

Conclusion

LKY showing the 'V' sign after being returned unopposed in the last GE. It was clear to many that he was unlikely to finish the term, but decided to run because of the enormous advantage he had as a vote-getter. No one would have begrudged him if he did not run, given his waning health.

I know some PAP supporters will balk at these suggestions and claim the party is not like that. Well I got news for them, the PAP like any political party contests in elections with the primary intention of winning. And the PAP has a record of using methods to ensure it enjoys all the advantages – from GRCs, Town Councils introduction, to boundary redrawing based on precinct voting and upgrading. And it’s not beyond them to field someone just to ensure victory. Oh yes, pray tell why was LKY allowed to contest the last GE when he was already 88 and in poor health? He was hardly able to attend Parliament or MPS, yet was still fielded. Or even take Baey Yam Keng’s move to Tampines to win over older Chinese voters following the last minute withdrawal of a candidate due to some controversy. All these was done to ensure victory. LKY, even a feeble and weak LKY, was a sure vote getter in Tg Pagar GRC. Many people still vote out of loyalty, and as seen by his funeral, loyalty matters.

So taking the opportunities brought about by his passing, is not something beyond the realms of possibility. There’s a lot of goodwill votes out there that are for the taking. Political parties the world over use this – the Congress Party in India for example swiftly named Rajiv Gandhi as party leader following his mother Indira Gandhi’s assassination in 1984. He called for elections shortly thereafter and won in a landslide. And his own assassination in 1991, ensured a return to power for Congress.