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To all prospective Presidents of Singapore…

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Presidential Elections in Singapore are special for more than a few reasons. The infrequency with which they have been conducted, the exorbitant election deposits involved and unusually stringent eligibility criteria are amongst just a few of these reasons. However, something about Presidential Elections in Singapore distinguishes them from Parliamentary ones in that they are the only type of elections where, seemingly, the region where you live and the district where you vote do not matter – the nation votes as a single entity and the candidates with the largest number of votes wins, in the best fashion of First Past The Post. So, surely, it would make sense for candidates vying to be President to campaign on national issues rather than fighting it out in different parts of the country? After all, there is no electoral college of some sort or other as there is in the United States of America, no “red” GRCs” and “blue GRCs”, no difference between Bedok and Bishan. But is this truly the case?

In reality, a spatial voting pattern does indeed exist across the island. This has been elucidated only in recent elections because of the phenomenon of ‘micropolling’. In the past, the only source of results was the official one on state-controlled media. While this remains the most popular source of results, as evidenced by the elevation of a humble Returning Officer to an instant internet sensation in Mr Yam Ah Mee, the alternative platform of micropolling has given us new clues as to how Singaporeans living in different places vote. Micropolling essentially involves the use of new social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook to broadcast results from each counting centre online. These results, which have never been officially published before, reflect the votes of electors in each polling district.

On the night of the 2011 Presidential Elections, it was revealed by online sources that Tan Cheng Bock had performed well in the western areas of Singapore such as Jurong West while Tony Tan won the districts in Sembawang decisively. In fact, in one counting centre in Fuhua Secondary School (in Jurong GRC), Tan Cheng Bock won a whopping 46.8% of the valid votes whilst the eventual winner of the election, Tony Tan, captured a mere 28.9% of votes. Over at Punggol East SMC which would later oust the People’s Action Party in favour of a Workers’ Party MP in the 2013 By-Election, out of 5 polling districts surveyed, 3 had given their support to Tan Cheng Bock. Admittedly, Tony Tan had purportedly bagged a considerable number of districts in affluent areas of Tanjong Pagar GRC as well. And so, the scrutiny of micropolling data certainly must be overshadowed by the observation of a number of possible trends:

  • Previous political affiliation with an area gives candidates a considerable edge through familiarity - Tan Cheng Bock used to be the Member for Ayer Rajah and Tony Tan represented Sembawang in the House.
  • Political attitudes in General Elections tend to stick during Presidential Elections – Punggol East voters rejected the government-backed candidate, Tony Tan, just as they did more apparently and vociferously in the by-election later on.
  • Socio-economic status and age may play a part too – some observers may claim that more affluent residents or, equally, more elderly residents in Tanglin-Cairnhill constituency and other areas in Tanjong Pagar GRC continued to support the government-backed candidate just as they probably have done so for years in national elections.

The significance of micropolling is also worth noting. The use of technology has given voters a certain degree of independence in finding out election results through helpful counting agents tweeting away results as they stream in, rather than from the mainstream media. Thus, micropolling has arguably helped to improve transparency in the political process, a quality that one should never take for granted even in the most politically mature of nations. So long as legislation does not get introduced to limit or prevent this practice, micropolling will be here to stay. This is especially important given that existing laws in Singapore prohibit the conduct of opinion polls during the campaign period and, unsurprisingly, exit polls during the polling period.

However, micropolling has revealed something about Presidential Elections that needs to be highlighted if future Presidential hopefuls want to campaign more effectively to reach out to voters. Whilst it is true that Presidential candidates can only go so far in campaigning on local issues given the ghastly limited authority they would have in executive issues in the first place, regional campaigning can strengthen their chances of winning as having a solid comprehension of voter preferences in different parts of Singapore would allow candidates to properly divide their resources and time in focusing on garnering more support in areas where they are predisposed to not perform as successfully as in other areas. Such predispositions are indicative of the diversity that exists in our political landscape which is easy to undermine.

Micropolling has helped propel the development of political analysis in Singapore and will continue to do so if independents running for the office of President are willing to take a closer look at the geographical aspect of local politics. In the meantime, those wishing to become MPs, too, have something to gain from this new way in which modern technology has impacted politics in our island-nation which will definitely be one step closer to becoming a more mature democracy as a result of this innovation.

“Some people still ask whether my long previous association with the PAP will stop me from acting independently. The answer is no. My loyalty is first and foremost, to the people of Singapore. It has always been so, and will always remain so”

- Ong Teng Cheong, the 1st Elected President of Singapore

Source of data:

Ngiam, S. T. (2011, August 29). Micropolling results of presidential elections 2011. Retrieved from http://stngiam.wordpress.com/2011/08/29/flash-results-micropolling-results-of-presidential-elections-2011/

 

yn94

*The writer blogs at http://mappedmusings.wordpress.com

 


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