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Why PAP will still be the ruling party in 2030

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PAP Marching

It is still a long way off before WP is able to form a govt.

Even if they keep winning in future elections, my conservative estimate is that it would take at least 20 years before WP manage to secure at least 44 seats in Parliament to form the new government and take over the stat boards and ministries.

By then, most of us would be in our 50s and semi retired..and most likely the civil services wouldn't want us too even the WP is now the new govt.

However, PAP is trying very hard to remain in power so that all their politicians can keep their jobs and draw their million dollar salaries for as long as possible.

The plan to increase the population to 6.9 million in 2030 might be just a ploy by the PAP to take in more foreigners and convert them to Singapore citizens. By then (in 2030), more than 50% of Singapore's population would be foreigners (many of whom are newly converted citizens) and the PAP knew that most of these "converted citizens" would vote for them out of gratitude. Foreigners and newly converted citizens will constitute >= 50% of Singapore population in 2030.

Many civil servants such as teachers, military generals, and senior officers in uniform organizations will most likely vote for PAP out of fear of losing their jobs.

Even though many civil servants may bad-mouth the govt and experienced true hardship from the members of public, they will still support PAP eventually. It takes guts and stupidity to bite the hands that feed you and most of them won't do so. Remember how Dr Tan Cheng Bock and Mr Ong Teng Cheong were ostracised when they dared to fight for the low income and poor?

If you give me a $5K monthly salary as a MOE teacher or civil service, I will gladly vote PAP in. It's hard to bite the hand that feeds you.

So does Wage Credit, GST Voucher and other direct monetary incentives.

Most of those uncles and aunties (true-blue Singaporeans from middle and low income backgrounds) in their 50s and 60s who are die-hard WP supporters in the recent by-election would most likely not be around in 30 years time, while newly converted citizens (likely to be loyal PAP supporters) would continue to increase over the next 20-30 years due to the open legs immigration policy of the PAP . 

On the other hand, there are also naive uncles and aunties (low income backgrounds) who get swayed by the candies offered by PAP during election years. Some of them will vote PAP with just a bit of financial assistance from meet-the-MP sessions and PA related events.

Hence, with the PAP trying all ways and means to retain their power, there is a possibility that we won't be able to see the WP form a new govt in our life-time.

 

CJ
TRS Contributor

 


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