Glut of Lawyers: A case of miscalculation?

In May 2013, the 4th Committee on the Supply of Lawyers released a report, which is widely remembered for its claim that there was a "shortage of lawyers".

While it wrote that large firms "do not suffer from a shortage of lawyers in relation to cross-border and local commercial/corporate law", it claimed that "medium-sized firms are experiencing a slight shortage of lawyers in this area", estimating the shortage to be around 291 lawyers on the basis of an informal survey conducted by the Ministry of Law. It then carried to write that there was "a critical shortage of lawyers practising community law, particularly where criminal law is concerned".

Annex C of the report lists some of the among the assumptions made in projecting the supply of legal professionals. Among these are assumptions that undergraduate admissions at the National University of Singapore and Singapore Management University "would remain at the same levels over the period 2011–2020", and that there would be a "gradually slowing decline" in graduates from overseas universities (OSUs) "that would eventually reach a steady state of about 140 annually".

The latter assumption was extrapolated from statistics of the Part A Conversion Bar Examination that graduates from OSUs had to take to qualify for admission to the Singapore Bar. It observed that though there was a "sharp spike in the number of successful Part A candidates from 87 in 2008 to 200 in 2009", this "declined to 177 in 2010". From there, they extrapolated the figure of 140.

Hence, to remedy the alleged "shortage" of lawyers and other issues, the Commission proposed increasing the annual undergraduate law intake of Singapore Management University from 120 to 180 students over 3 years, establishing a third law school with a focus on training prospective lawyers keen on practising community law, and "enlarging yet maintaining the quality of the foreign supply of lawyers".

The Government welcomed the key recommendations of the Committee, though a number of lawyers were indignant about the proposal for a third law school.

Yet there are other questionable aspects about the report.

Even on first glance, some of the calculations and extrapolated figures should give an average person pause for reflection. For example, one does not extrapolate figures for the next ten years simply by observing a decline over one year, especially if the trend is unclear.

But recent reports have put the obvious calculation flaws beyond question.

The Sunday Times reports in "S'pore facing a glut of lawyers" (17 August 2014):

Over just four years up to March last year, the number of practising lawyers here leapt by nearly 25 per cent to more than 4,400.  

Another 1,500 are expected to join them in the next three years. And there has been a sharp rise in those heading overseas to study law. In Britain alone, the number of Singapore law students more than doubled from 510 to 1,142 between 2010 and last year.  

Law Minister K. Shanmugam dished out these numbers yesterday as he warned that Singapore could soon have more lawyers than jobs for them all.  

He urged law students to temper career and salary expectations, and maybe even consider other jobs.  

Speaking at the Criminal Justice Conference organised by the Singapore Management University (SMU) and National University of Singapore, which both have law schools, he said the number of lawyers is expected to grow by nearly a third in the next three years.  

But "the market is not going to grow by 30 per cent", he said, pointing out that this year, nearly 650 graduates will compete for about 490 practice training contracts at law firms, to get the training they need before being admitted to the Singapore Bar.  

"About 150 students will have difficulty getting a training contract, let alone employment after that," said Mr Shanmugam, who is a senior counsel himself. "The study of law provides an excellent training of the mind, so I don't want to be seen as discouraging people... but you have to have a realistic understanding of the market, the economy, the total structure."  

While Singapore is trying to "grow the legal market" through initiatives such as the Singapore International Commercial Court to handle dispute resolution, students could go into fields like banking, business, public service and even politics with their law degrees, he suggested.  

Rules governing training contracts could be changed to make it easier for more students to get them, "but there is a limit to how much the Government can intervene in the market", he said.  

He added that those who do get jobs should be realistic about their salaries: "You see headlines that top lawyers make 'x' million dollars, but there is a huge difference between what the top two or three lawyers make, and what everyone else makes."  

Lawyers and academics whom The Sunday Times spoke to admitted that future lawyers should be prepared to face a lot of competition from their peers in the marketplace.  

SMU law lecturer Eugene Tan said "the days of law firms chasing law graduates are now over".  

"Grades are helpful but students should also hone skills like writing and crafting legal arguments and research to improve their chances of being hired," he added.  

Veteran lawyer Chia Boon Teck said law graduates could consider joining multinational companies with large legal departments. "If you want to join a law firm, study very very hard and aim to be among the top few graduates. Also, make as many friends who are lawyers as possible," he advised.  

Ms Lynn Kan, who is starting her second year at SMU's post-graduate law programme, said some of her classmates are already considering taking on more internships to improve their prospects. The 27-year-old said: "I've got my training contract already but I was really lucky."