There have been many protests on several national issues organised by various entities and individuals in the past years. By far, the most attended protest on national issues was the Feb 2013 PWP HLP protest.
Based on many reliable estimates, the number of people who attended the event exceeded 5,000. Arguably the PWP controversy cut through the entire cross-section of the population and found significant spontaneous response from people of all walks both young and old. The upcoming CPF HLP protest seems equally broad based in terms of impact on the people concerned. Potentially, any citizen is affected and not just the working adults but students and retirees alike. How would the likely turnout at this upcoming CPF HLP protest be and what would be its significance?
The most probable scenario is a potential turnout of 5,000 to 10,000 people and likely to reach the upper limit. CPF is a close to the heart issue to many Singaporeans especially those retirees and those in their forties, fifties and sixties. With the CPF minimum sum been raised to S$155,000 this coming July which is less than 30 days away and not forgetting the Medisave account minimum sum mandated at more than S$40,000 at current rate, the total amount is easily in excess of S$200,000 for Singaporeans reaching 55 years of age and will be “locked up” till 65 before pittance of few hundred dollars release bit by bit to the CPF holders when living cost is going through the roof.
Typically, an undergraduate student’s living expenses already exceeded a few hundred dollars a month excluding university fees, exam fees, lodging, books, utilities fees, home meals and annual holiday breaks and seasonal festival expenses. For retirees to subsist on a few hundred dollars a month what rightfully was their life time hard earned savings and doled out at drips and pieces is certainly not a golden retirement prospect many people who have slogged a life time in a pressure cooker society look forward to.
Despite the statistics, not many people can live till a ripe old age of 80+ or 90+ years old. Not being able to access their retirement funds even at age 65 and only given bits and pieces here that can barely defray living expenses not mentioning medical fees is something that is found wanting by people generally. Even in much lower living standard nations in Asia such as China, anecdotal evidence showed that their retirees are provided with much, much better retirement benefits and monthly allowance in recent years. How the Singapore authority intends to address and tackle this issue satisfactorily, reasonably and fairly in the eyes of the people remains to be seen.
Some people brought out that the weather might deter the eventual turnout. Alas, for such “critical issues”, not mentioning raindrops that essentially can be easily resolved using a good raincoat or umbrella, even if it was to “rain knives”, a good “metallic flexible umbrella” would provide sufficient shelter relative to the issue on hand. For such “life and death” issue, small inconveniences such as rain is unlikely to deter people’s turnout. A good anecdotal example is the countless past election rallies. People were totally drenched, shoes muddied yet turnout numbered as many as 50,000 to in excess of 100,000. Thus, it is possible that the upcoming turnout can be massive.
The possibility and probability of 300 to 500 hundred people turnout is likely to be as unlikely as a person living to 200 years old. Barring any unforeseen natural or man made calamity such as earthquake, inaccessible traffic that deter people from reaching the legally sanctioned protest venue and event by the authority, such scenario is highly unlikely and the probability of it happening might be close to striking 4D lottery.
The next possible scenario is a turnout of 500 to 5,000 people. Given the extent that this CPF issue affects the people universally, it is highly unusual if it happens that people would not even bother to turn up and show face. This is not a political event per se but one that affects people’s future livelihood and retirement, healthcare expenses etc. If people bother to get up to work or school since young for the past 60 years from 3 years old to 65 when they retire, why should they not go for an event 4pm in the afternoon on a Saturday which affects many decades of life savings and future retirement livelihood and medical needs?
Lastly, a potential crowd exceeding 10,000. This is possible but given the tiny size of a protest site, the crowd would be spilling to nearby sidewalks etc. If it happens, people will be clamouring for a much larger protest site in the future such as the padang or national stadium or even the entire orchard rd for an adequate venue in the future.
The final verdict shall be known soon by evening 7 Jun 2014. Regardless of the turnout, this CPF issue is unlikely to die down any time soon and might turn “messy” in the future if no satisfactory answer is given to the people when the “means and money” is still there. Anyway, according to recent official stand, the CPF money is acknowledged as the “people’s own money anyway”. It is a matter of how it is going to be returned to the people upon retirement, when and how much? Imagine when one put in a deposit into a bank for 40 years looking forward to a deserved retirement after a life time of hard work and the money is attached with all kinds of restrictions and conditions for withdrawals and continuously changing with moving goal posts? Who on earth with rational mind would accept such outcome?
PSS
* The author blogs at http://pro-sustainable-sg.blogspot.sg