Related Article: One Swing Voter's View of the Little Red Dot
Heartware vs Hardware
For a swing voter, what is more important in the scheme of things, heartware or hardware?
Should he/ she choose a regime which focuses more on the software side of society on the whole or one that mindlessly focuses on GDP growth at all cost, building and building more and more gleaming hardware and buildings in the economy and on the whole neglects building and nurturing the social software of the society?
In other words, between the choice of a regime focusing on heartware and hardware, which will make for a more liveable society and sustainable future?
Has the economy really grew for the masses in the past few years?
One simple way to look at whether the rich-poor income gap is narrowing or widening is the TFR figure in the past few years. Past historical data has shown that in times of hardship or economic downturn or economic upturn but the masses experiencing a shrinking real income growth, TFR tends to move in locked-steps.
Another way to figure out whether cost has risen rapidly and far out-stripped nominal income growth is by looking at the gross expenditure of a typical family's spending on goods and services. With the cost structure as it is in the past few years and Singapore even earning the "WORLD CUP TITLE" equivalent in terms of cost of living, Singapore has emerged as the current "WORLD CHAMPION" as the "MOST EXPENSIVE CITY" in the world, according to the report published by The Economist Intelligence Unit few weeks ago. Yay! Singapore has finally won the "WORLD CUP"! At least as the "MOST EXPENSIVE CITY" in the world.
How much has real income likely dropped for the masses in the past few years?
Based on simple back of hand estimation, it is not an exaggeration to conclude that real income might have dropped as much as 10% between 2010 to 2013.
Absolute gross spending might have increased for the masses due to higher prices but the bang per dollar likely has dropped from one dollar to ninety cents in terms of real purchasing power between 2010 to 2013.
If this is not convincing, lets look at another macroeconomic indicator.
Has the NODEX - Non-Oil Domestic Exports Risen in the Past Few Quarters or Actually Declined?
Again without looking at specific figures, given the cost structures over the past few years, in terms of competitiveness of Singapore's non-oil domestic exports, it is highly likely that NODEX has declined over the past several quarters.
Thus, it is no genius to foresee that going forward, Singapore's NODEX is likely to perform poorly in the coming months and years as the cost structure in an economy especially land cost is rather rigid and sticky downwards.
Is there any surprise the number of millionaires in Singapore has risen sharply in recently years?
Absolutely not.
Given the cost structure, property owners would have seen huge quantum leap in their asset values.
Is this a good sign?
Again absolutely not.
This is likely a drug-like, steroid-type of temporary boost in the first few years. The serious symptoms and economic ills likely would be manifested and felt in the economy, by both the masses and the exporters in the coming years especially 2015 to 2020.
The above are hardly any optimistic prognosis.
But from the point of view of a swing voter and in the interest of the masses, what to call a spade other than a spade?
In the meantime, do pay more attentive focus going forward when you go out and make purchases. Likely the bang for every dollar is far lesser than what is officially claimed. Another way to analyse it is that if a family can afford 30 kg of rice in 2010, in 2014 likely they can only afford about 26 kg of rice with their current nominal income. This is just an example. It may not be rice per se but generally across the board in terms of the purchasing power and real income level of the masses in their affordability of a basket of goods and services for day to day needs such as food, shelter, health care, transport, utilities, basic necessities etc.
PSS
*The writer blogs at http://pro-sustainable-sg.blogspot.sg/