The trial of Kong Hee and his co-defendants from City Harvest Church (CHC) crossed a significant milestone on Monday with the trial judge, Judicial Commissioner (JC) See Kee Onn ruling that a 'prima facie' case has been made out by the prosecution.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/city-harvest-leaders-have-a-case-to-answer--judge-090820373.html
This is significant in that it means that the prosecution has raised a reasonable argument that offences have been committed by the 6 accused, and unless their defense teams raises a reasonable defense, all 6 will be convicted on the charges they face. To use footballing terms, this means that the first half of the trial has completed and the prosecution have taken a lead, it could be just a 1-0 lead against each of the 6, or it could mean more than 1 goal. Looking at the way JC See delivered his decision, I think this is more than just a single goal lead.
Going places. Mr See Kee Onn was a Senior District Judge when the trial commenced. He's since had a double promotion, to Chief District Judge (now renamed as Presiding Judge State Courts) and finally as a member of the High Court (with jurisdiction over the lower courts) as a Judicial Commissioner.
Kong Hee faces 3 charges involving $24 million including the serious one of Criminal Breach of Trust (CBT), to divert that amount to fund his wife, Sun Ho's eventually under-whelming music career. All 6 face these charges, but Kong Hee is not accused in the other misuse of $26 million to conceal the first amount. Some significant observations were made by JC See:
'Noting that the evidence presented is more documentary than it is oral — in the form of numerous emails — Judicial Commissioner See said it was sufficient, in his assessment, to support the contention that CHC's money was misappropriated.'
'Also..... there is evidence that the accused knew that the building fund could be used for specific purposes only, Judicial Commissioner See said it can reasonably be inferred that they were dishonest, because they knew they were not legally allowed to use the money the way they did.'
Ms Mavis Chionh SC (r) a former district judge, is the lead prosecutor in the case.
Reading into this I think the prosecution has around a 2-3 goal lead at the end of the first half. Therefore to prevent a conviction and jail time, the defense lawyers must be able to at least 'equalise' or better still overtake the prosecution's lead when their '2nd half chance' begins from July 14th. (This is the very day after the World Cup Final, talking about football metaphors!) After the defense has rested, both sides get some 'extra-time' to once again summarise their case for the judge. It will then go into 'penalties' where the JC retires to reach his verdict. But don't expect things to end very quickly, I suspect because of the sheer number of defendants, a verdict will only be forthcoming at the end of the year, maybe even in early 2015.
Liverpool took a 3-0 lead in the recent match with Crystal Palace. Kong Hee's defense team must now do 'a Palace' and erase that lead and tie the prosecution's lead or overtake it.
Since this trial started, I've been 'offering odds' just like a football match, as to what the outcome will be. I touched on this in an earlier post. With the end of the '1st half', I've now re-evaluated and updated the odds, which are as follows:
Kong Hee Verdict:
1) Acquitted on all 3 charges: 10-1 (His lawyer pushes the blame on others)
2) Guilty of 1 charge, acquitted on 2: 7-4
3) Guilty of 2, acquitted on the other: 6-1
4) Guilty of all 3 charges: 5-2
Because these odds are based on the case the prosecution have presented thus far, it's slightly biased against a full acquittal. However his defense team might 'pull a rabbit out of the hat' and rebut the gist of the prosecution's case. If that happens, then I'll have to shorten the acquittal odds. I think it's more likely he'll either be convicted of just 1 or all 3 than being found guilty on just 2, at this stage.
Sentence Range:
If he's convicted, I doubt he'll get any fine. Due to the large amounts involved, I think imprisonment is likely to follow any conviction(s). The odds for the sentences, based on previous similar type cases, makes me come up with the following:
1) 5 years jail or less: 14-1 (conviction on 1 charge - the lesser one)
2) Over 5 years and up to 8 years: 5-2 (conviction on 1 or 2 charges including CBT)
3) Over 8 years and up to 10 years: 5-1 (convicted on 2 charges)
4) Over 10 years and up to 13 years: 7-5 (guilty of 3, with 2 consecutive)
5) 13 years and more: 10-1 (also guilty of all 3, with 2 consecutive)
I doubt he'll get 5 years or below on the lesser charge. He'll most likely be acquitted fully than be guilty of a lower charge attracting such a sentence. If he's guilty of 1 or 2, I think it'll include the CBT and that should start somewhere around the 6-7 year mark. If he's convicted of just 2, I doubt it'll be in the range of 4+4 or 5+5, making it within the 8 to under 10 year range. 2 convictions need not be consecutive, and he'll probably get 6-7 on 1, with the other concurrent. However if he's convicted on all 3, the Judge MUST make 2 sentences consecutive, so I think it might be 6 + 6, 6 + 4, 7 + 4 in those ranges, making a sentence just over 10 but below 13.
Kong Hee is in serious danger of spending the rest of the decade in a different kind of accommodation to the luxurious one he enjoys at Sentosa Cove.
As mentioned before, all this is conjecture, he might be eventually acquitted or if found guilty, his lawyers might raise a good mitigation that he did not set out to cheat but became a prisoner of circumstances and went along with it. Or maybe 1 or more of the other defendants carries the can as the primary mover of these series of offences. He might come away with just a few years instead. But the large amounts involved are troubling, because multi-million dollar amounts normally attract higher sentencing tariffs.
Kong Hee must hope that his lawyer, Edwin Tong, can grapple with the complexities of the case as well as he did with this Burmese python.
Anyway at the moment, the defense lawyers need to strategise and decide how they are going to counter and erase the prosecution's lead. However just because the prosecution have made a case out, doesn't mean Kong Hee and Co are guilty. Very seldom here are cases thrown out without the defense called to response to the charges, simply because normally the prosecution would have sat down and assessed the evidence before proceeding to charge an accused. They would have to satisfy themselves that some evidence is there to show the accused's guilt. But it equally doesn't mean just because they found something at the very least, that the accused is guilty. He may have good reasons or acted in good faith, and raised a reasonable doubt. He doesn't need to prove his innocence beyond a shadow of a doubt, only something that is reasonable based on facts.
High Fashion. 1 of his co-accused, Ms Serina Wee has been turning heads with her fashion style. But the time for fancy dressing is now over, she needs to 'make a real fashion statement' on her case, if not the only garments she'll be wearing will be state issued ones.
However at another angle, this represents some serious decision making by the defendants including Kong Hee. They need their lawyers to advise them properly where they are as things stand and how good is their case compared to what the prosecution has thus far presented. It might not be advisable to go on denying everything, only to get a conviction and attract a higher sentence, if their defense might not hold up to scrutiny. Although the lawyers have said all 6 are ready to testify, there might still be room for a re-think before July 14th. Since half of them are facing more than the 3 Kong Hee is charged with, they are likely to get a higher sentence than him. They might just decide it's finally time to burn their bridges with him, and save their own skins, by minimising their roles and pushing the bulk of the blame to him or someone else.
The $50 million dollar woman - Sun Ho. I think despite her rather dodgy songs, she's still by far the most expensive ever artiste (if you can call her one) in Singapore history. A record that may never be broken even!
Things will become clearer when the trial re-starts. But, there's 1 set of odds, I'm very confident of:
1) Kong Hee NOT going to Jail in 2014: 1-15
2) Kong Hee to appeal any conviction: 1-10
I don't think the trial will finish this year. I think the Judge will come to his decision by say December at the earliest, and because of Christmas etc, he'll allow them to at the very least enjoy it. I think a January 2015 verdict is likelier. Or because of the sheer number of witnesses and evidence raised by the defense lawyers, a verdict is only likely next year at the earliest. However even if he reaches a verdict and delivers jail sentences upon convictions in 2014, it's highly unlikely that Kong Hee will be going in this year. He's almost certainly going to appeal that. A conviction followed by imprisonment, could spell the end of his ministry at the helm of CHC. CHC, I think will survive on without him. Not as successfully, but I think it'll survive all the same. Kong Hee isn't poor and he's definitely aware of the implications of an imprisonment term. He'll definitely do everything within his power to avoid that and claim divine intervention if it turns out as he hopes it will.
A new meaning to 'cell group.' CHC has a number of cell groups. Kong Hee might be starting a literal one, if he's unable to rebut the prosecution's case.
We'll just have to wait for the final score and possibly a replay (an appeal). But simply put, Kong Hee needs 'to score in the 2nd half', and he needs a few goals. Most importantly, he must hope that his fellow co-defendants don't 'score own goals' and give the prosecution an insurmountable lead. Last but not least, he needs to make sure the referee (judge) doesn't give him the 'red card' and sends him off to that 'sprawling underground complex' in Changi North.
Anyhow Hamtam
*The author blogs at http://anyhowhantam.blogspot.sg/