Related: PM Lee: Ukraine is a prime example of why we need to spend so much on Defence
1. I refer to a reminder from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his facebook post that said,
“… The Ukraine crisis remind us that small countries must defend themselves and cannot rely solely on international treaties or the promises of others. That is why Singapore must always maintain a strong Singapore Armed Forces and Home Team. At the same time, it must also have a capable Foreign Affairs Ministry to strengthen our ties with friends and allies. Only then can Singapore be safe and secure.”
2. PM Lee attached a map of Ukraine and Russia in his facebook post, presumably, to show ‘how small Ukraine is relative to Russia’ in geographical size.
Ukraine is Not a Small Country in Terms of Its Population
3. Armed forces of a country draw their manpower from its population, not its large land size. That is why comparing the population sizes makes more sense than comparing the geographical sizes if the goal is to know how two countries stack up against each other.
4. In a list of 244 sovereign states and dependent territories, Ukraine is ranked 29th with a population of 45.4 million in 2014, accounting for 0.64% of the world population. In the same list, Russia is ranked 9th with a population of 143.7 million in 2014, accounting for 2.01% of the world population or about three times more populated than Ukraine.
5. To put matters in perspective, Singapore is ranked 116th with a population of 5.4 million in 2013, accounting for 0.076% of the world population.
6. In other words, Ukraine’s population in the world is considered large. Relative to Russia, the population of Ukraine is about 3 times smaller. But this is not a reason to call Ukraine ‘a small country’ or associate Ukraine with a small country like Singapore.
7. For example, the population of United States is about 5 times smaller than China. Would it make sense for PM Lee to remind us of the dangers of “a small country like the United States cutting back on its military budget while its potential bigger opponent China is increasing theirs? Clearly, the United States is no small country even though its smaller than China. Similarly for Ukraine in relation to Russia.
8. So why even try to associate a small country like Singapore with Ukraine to begin with? Does it make any sense say for the leader of Vatican City (0.44km²) to remind his citizens that only big countries like Singapore (716.1 km²) can afford to spend heavily on military expenditures in order to maintain a strong armed forces?
9. In addition, the first map purporting to show how Russia is much larger in area compared to Ukraine is misleading because most areas of Russia are very lightly or not populated at all as shown below in the population density map of Russia.
10. Thus, Russia may be much larger than Ukraine in terms of area but Ukraine is clearly not a small country in terms of its population.
11. While population sizes do make slightly more sense than land area comparisons, the amount of military funding is what experts focus on.
Ukraine Has a Weaker Armed Forces Not Because of Manpower Shortages or Lacked Conscription But Because the Ukrainian Government Is Cash-Strapped
12. Ukraine has been receiving extended loan facilities from the IMF since 1998. More recently, the IMF has provided loans of $16.4 billion in2008 and $15 billion in 2010. IMF is also considering a loan request of $20 billion in Dec 2013. There are many ongoing efforts to give financial life lines to the Ukrainian government from the US, EU and IMF. Readhere
13. According to a Foxnews article citing a Ukrainian Defence Ministry report,
“Ukraine’s underfunded and outdated military, with Cold War-era technology and salaries to match, would be an anemic deterrent if the Russian invasion of Crimea were to widen into a bigger confrontation, according to a 2012 Ukrainian Ministry of Defense report… while Russia spends just less than $100 billion per year on defense, Ukraine’s military budget for 2011 was $1.27 billion, according to the report, whose authors complained that the cash-strapped government routinely provided even less funding than it allocated on paper.”
14. The cash strapped Ukrainian government which relies on loans from the IMF is clearly no position to raise its low military expenditure which stood at 1.1% of GDP.
15. In other words, Ukraine is an example of a cash-strapped government, in sharp contrast to a cash-rich government like Singapore which can choose to spend a large percent of its GDP on military expenditures for many years running. If a poor country, whether it is small or large poor country, spends little on its military budget, that country cannot field a modern, effective and superior fighting force.
16. The focus on the ‘size of any country’ is an unwarranted distraction from the real issue of Ukraine’s deep economic woes. Maintaining a strong armed forces is not an option for Ukraine like it is for Singapore.
The Russian Federation Has a Long History of Conflicts Near Its Former Border Regions
17. Now that it is established that Ukraine is neither a small country like Singapore nor cash rich like Singapore which can afford to spend large amounts on its armed forces, we can understand the crisis in Ukraine much better by looking at the recent history of Russia, instead of instinctively trying to link the crisis in Ukraine to that familiar narrative of “small countries”.
18. Russia has a long and well-established warlike history along its vast periphery following the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Those conflicts included the South Ossetia War (1991-92), War of Transnistria(1992), War in Abkhazia (1992-93), Chechnya (1994 & 1999) andGeorgia (2008).
19. The same overt reason for Russian involvement in those conflicts is because pro-Russian secession forces want to form an ‘independent state or autonomous region’ that is closely allied to Russia and supported by Russian troops, somewhat similar to the situation in Ukraine and particularly Crimea right now.
20. In other words, Russia didn’t get involved in those past conflicts and in the current crisis in Ukraine per se because those states were ‘small countries’ and seen as easy targets.
21. Thus, the Ukraine crisis is not an example of ‘a small country getting bullied by a larger power’ per se but more accurately yet another example of secessionist forces allied to and getting help a neighboring former superpower.
22. Clearly, the crisis in Ukraine cannot be linked to that familiar narrative of vulnerable ‘small countries’ like Singapore.
History and Geopolitics of Singapore
23. It is very instructive to note there is no historical precedent, not even one, of modern Singapore becoming invaded because it is an inviting target as a ‘small country’.
24. The occupation of Singapore by Japan was part of the Second World War: a global conflict that involved countries whether they are small or large, weak or strong.
25. The Konfrontasi during 1963–1966 was Indonesia’s armed opposition to the creation of the new federation of Malaya, Malaysia, which Singapore was a part of. During that undeclared war from 1963, attacks, infiltration and incursions took place throughout Malaysia especially on the island of Borneo. Despite the recent marathon and saturation top news coverage from the local media on the MacDonald House bombing, the local media failed to mention that Singapore was never solely or specifically targeted by Indonesia just because Singapore was seen by Indonesians as a ‘small and weak link of Malaysia‘. In fact, the attacks on civilian targets in Singapore only goes to show the military installations were well defended by the Commonwealth forces.
Example of local media coverage and how politicians see the MacDonald bombing in 1965
26. Lastly, Singapore is not located adjacent to or very near a former superpower like Russia or a former Imperial Empire of Japan which have sympathetic ethnic populations that might call for secession like in the example of Ukraine/Crimea.
Ethnic Division is Key in the Ukrainian Crisis
27. Is PM Lee suggesting that Ukraine can fend off Putin’s Russia from occupying Crimea if Ukraine had spent a large percent of its GDP on military expenditures just like Singapore? Against Vladimir Putin’s Russia? Even if half of Singapore’s population is Russian speaking or ethnic Russian? According to the earlier Foxnews article,
“Cordesman said Ukraine’s military power is largely irrelevant in light of the country’s ethnic divisions. Many in east Ukraine speak mostly Russian and view the recent revolution as illegitimate. “The main issue is not military balance,” Cordesman said. “It is whether Ukraine can put its forces together into a unified organization. Trying to occupy the Crimea would be to find out the hard way how many soldiers are Ukrainian, [but] Russian supporters.“
28. Even if Ukraine is the same size as Russia or possess the same armed forces like Russia, the key in Ukraine is still its ethnic divide. The nebulous claim that Ukraine is an example of “a small country with a weak military being occupied by a big power” only misses this crucial point that Ukraine is first and foremost “a country, divided along ethnic lines, located adjacent to a former superpower”.
Major ethnic and linguistic divisions in Ukraine
29. Bilahari Kausikan, ambassador at large at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in a Straits Times article,
“There is yet another particularly apt lesson here for Singaporeans. Calls for a reduction in national service commitments should be regarded with great skepticism. We must never lose the ability to look after ourselves, because if we cannot look after ourselves, nobody will look after us.”
30. Mr Ambassador, besides using hard to define terms like “we must never lose the ability to look after ourselves”, have you considered how an increase in the size of active or reserve personnel, or an increase in the length of active and reservist service, or buying more of latest high tech equipment, is actually relevant and helpful to Ukraine (or to Singapore for that matter if the island state ever finds itself in the same shoes as Ukraine), when the population of Ukraine is divided between a pro-Russia east and pro-EU west?
31. Mr Ambassador, do you propose that Ukraine forbid half of its fit for military service population which prefer closer ties to Russia, from taking part in national service before the crisis or from reporting in during Ukraine’s current military mobilization? How do you determine who will switch sides from Kiev to Moscow? Are you suggesting that a longer military service in the Ukrainian armed forces will somehow reduce the ethnic divide in Ukraine?
32. China is the most logical superpower lite candidate to replace Russia in Singapore’s neighborhood. Does PM Lee or Mr Ambassador think a military spending of 2% or 4% or 6% of GDP will make any difference in dealing with China’s armed forces if one day in the (“you never know”) future, up to 50% of Singapore’s population (including both china-born residents and non residents) demand a closer political union with China, citing some historical maps from Admiral Zheng He or travelogues from Wang Dayuan?
Conclusion
33. Ukraine is not a small country like Singapore. Ukraine also does not have a weaker armed forces because Ukraine chose to have a small military budget or chose not to adopt conscription (national service) in the many years leading up to 2014. In addition, Russia has a long history of taking part in conflicts along its long borders. Finally the sovereignty of Singapore has never been violated like in Ukraine just because Singapore was a small country.
34. Thus, we should let cooler heads prevail and exercise caution before rushing to draw any links between the crisis in Ukraine with that familiar narrative of a ’small country’ like Singapore.
35. Geopolitics is really more complex and shouldn’t be reduced to an unsophisticated narrative that says “because we are small, [therefore by default] we must be strong militarily to defend ourselves”. Another emotional soundbite and a close variant is ”because we can only trust ourselves, therefore by default we must be strong militarily to defend ourselves”. [my insert]
36. The most important lesson to draw from Ukraine is ‘all countries, whether small or large, must guard against division along ethnic lines, especially when one ethnic group feels stronger ties with a more powerful neighboring state that has a long warlike history’. It is not ”all small countries by default must always maintain a strong armed forces to defend themselves”.
PassThePin
*The writer blogs at http://passthespin.wordpress.com/