I had speculated that PAP will hold a snap general election in 2014.
I remain convinced this is still on track, looking at the consistent pattern and vigor of political posturing by the incumbency – subject to one caveat – the economic backdrop turning acerbic from its current benign state.
PM LHL, in his CNY message to the nation said the “global economy is heading up”. His claims did not elaborate on nor explain the exuberant claim. Current economic climate points to the contrary. Emerging market news and economic statistics coming out of key major economic centres from EU, Japan, and China were gloomy of upturn prospects although there is some hint of shine in the US economic data.
I have taken a more circumspect view of global economic outlook this year. Under challenge, our Finance Minister, Tharman Shamugaratnum, confessed the “global economic outlook in 2014 is uncertain.” This position agrees with mine. The odds of a synchronized global economic recovery are far too small. The risks include the following drawbacks:
- The Chinese and Japanese economies are pursuing macro-economic policies that pull in opposite direction – that is to say, the Chinese are shrinking credit expansion and curbing demand while the Japanese are aggressively expanding stimulation and generate demand.
- The EU still faces the risks of another deflationary recession – the December qtr positive GDP statistics is too narrow and too shallow to give confidence of a definite turnaround.
- The slowing down effects due liquidity shrinkage from tapering is still unknown but already has some negative feedback loops surfacing in emerging market liquidity, slowing their economic activity;
- The housing sector, the weakest data-point of US economic statistic – has NOT yet shown signs of sustained recovery discounting the fact that inclement weather curbed December qtr home sales and new construction demand.
Against this benign economic outlook, the incumbent governance forged ahead with election mode aggression. Its fixing of the Workers Party (WP)-supported festive hawking in Hougang was swiftly followed by severe public damnation of AHPETC’s accounts despite its own even “dirtier” backyard messy accounting exposed in PA which left voters with a bad after-taste of drama pretense. It is all political.
The biggest show is, of course, the notorious “Pioneer Generation Package” (PGP in short) without which the Budget 2014 would be almost a non-event after the introduction of the Progressive Package which was specific to the security and cleaning industries.
The PGP is viewed by some as an $8 billion con job of illusory benefit. Others see that as a deception of “sexy” accounting of national budget statement to the nation. The ever politically-correct mouthpiece sees it as “Striking a fair deal for the elderly and “the right thing to do”. Other experts of sorts raised PAP onto the political pedestal and sang praises of PGP as a “right focus”. In my judgment, PGP is a desperate and sexy election ploy of rotting pork in a barrel.
WHY AM I CYNICAL?
The government is NOT spending an additional cent even though PGP is touted to cost this nation a staggering $8 billion – the centerpiece of its Budget 2014 handout. In fact, few “beneficiaries” might actually be able to access this package owing to their limitation to meet the co-payment deductible even if their health situation is desperate. Still others would naturally “depart” from this earth before they could access PGP. Most of the $8 billion won’t be spent and more likely than not and only a small fraction of those eligible have the means to claim substantial assistance to the full value of available presumed entitlement.
Yet, in terms of vote-buying, the PAP are potentially the biggest winners. PAP said about 450,000 eligible votes are up for PAP’s grab in this bait-and-switch ploy, representing 20% of eligible voters to pile on top of the 10% voting class constituted by those benefiting from its “Progressive Wage”. Social media disputes the figure and puts it to a smaller 310,000 to 360,000. Whatever the figure, the incumbents know the ground is very acerbic towards them as evidenced by the previous two by-elections, a stunning strong mood swing in Punggol East and a stubborn Hougang bulwark of implacable grudge-holding.
PAP’s agenda has always been votes and its tool, the political calculator, NOT welfare. PAP’s political agenda has always been one-tracked despite strong encouragement from social media and opposition politics across the divide that it gives more weight to citizens’ well-being. Care for the pioneer aged is originally WP’s political initiative. In 2011 National Day Statement, Gerald Giam wrote – Honoring Our First Generation. https://www.facebook.com/geraldgiam.sg/posts/217410324977867. Credit for this care of the aged, if properly instituted, without a warped political agenda, must be given to the WP. Such piously filial thoughts did NOT emerge from the PAP’s grandstanding during the Hougang By-election or the Punggol East By-election!
That said, how can the nation mysteriously find an additional $8 billion out of a projected 2014 revenue inflow of $59.1 billion, an increase of $2.37 billion or 4.1% of the revised 2013 estimate? All this is achieved without big tax increase and leaves a budget deficit of $1.16 billion, and all that to expense off in current financial year? Budget revenue flow forecast and total expenditure gain is about the same rate as the forecast underlying economic growth rate. Therefore the increase in extraordinary spending budgeted for another $8 billion in PGP has to come from somewhere though not disclosed in the projected operating revenue statement of $59.1 billion (http://www.singaporebudget.gov.sg/data/budget_2014/download/2%20Overview%20Budget%20For%20Financial%20Year%202014.pdf).
Contrary to what you might have read in MSM, this money did NOT come from the Net Investment Returns Contribution forecast to be $8.1 billion. So, did that money come from prior year’s surplus stored somewhere? If that is so, the reasonable presumption must be that the budget surplus in earlier years must have been much bigger than official figures and are hidden from the public eye. One estimate put the actual 2013 surplus at closer to $29 billion against an official modest $3.92 billion. This raises the question – was the budget accounting of past real surpluses available for public access and is it accurate interpretation? Was the accounting methodology structured to favor hidden surpluses, obscured from public eye, which is then conveniently available to the ruling party to be used as a tool for its political agenda?
National budgetary finance is a matter of macro-economic parameters and significance, it can’t and under no circumstances, should be used as a political tool to advance party politics or its hegemony of self-interest. If and when that happens, national development interests are disadvantageously prejudiced and the nation’s welfare is sacrificed to party domination and control. It is unacceptable when a whole swathe of the population is mired in poverty while the incumbent political party continues to use the nations’ resources to ensure its own political survival through vote-buying and the works.
It is not much different from slavery of economic exploitation and economic imprisonment by the State, hiding shared resources from public eyes and using selective distribution as evidenced by the “Progressive Wage” and the PGP. These target the weakest and most vulnerable section of our community which might be easy to exploit and to exact obedience and compliance given they sorely need economic support from the State. They have little capacity to resist. In effect they are treated like Pavlov dogs, to salivate at the sight of external stimulus even if the cue is illusory, exactly that of the Pavlov’s classical conditioning response (http://psychology.about.com/od/classicalconditioning/a/pavlovs-dogs.htm).
OXYGEN