Needless to say, the City Harvest Trial is the talk of the town, not just to Christians but almost everyone, from coffee-shop aunties, taxi drivers, heck even my mother who doesn't really keep up with things is eager for more juicy details from the on going trial. Although there are 6 defendants, the 'star' of the show is Kong Hee, the leader of the City Harvest Church in Singapore. Although not a defendant, the 'co-star' has to be his wife, Sun Ho, a church worker turned singer.
Anyway the trial still has a long way to go yet before we get a verdict, so I'll indulge in something I've always liked to do for things like these - offer/predict the odds one way or the other for the primary actor. In fact I had offered odds last year in a reply in another blogger's post - Limpeh is Foreign Talent - he has written extensively on the CHC saga, you can check his website out - http://limpehft.blogspot.sg/. A year on with the trial in full swing, I think it's time to update the odds.
However before going into that, I'd just like to comment on 2 things that have been reported in the press. The first - Sun Ho's singing caper in the US has attracted many responses in multiple blogs, so pardon me if I indulge in some opinion giving of my own. The reason given by Kong Hee and others for sponsoring his wife's music career was to try and win over new converts in the US, similar to what she had done in Taiwan, China and possibly Hong Kong. The idea was to attract the attention of the secular world by being part of them - hence the term 'Crossover Project'.
Sun's Crossover Project - that's how it was labelled, as this presentation in a Kong Hee sermon demonstrates.
Strictly speaking this is not a bad idea, sometimes you have to walk in person's shoes or be part of their way of life in order to spread your message, win their trust and help them. However in Ms Ho's case, it was a failure of epic proportions, if you believe their version that getting her to become a popular singer in the US would attract many young secular people to turn to Christianity based on her songs and lifestyle. Of course there could be another version, as some have inferred - it was all a scam or excuse, to siphon church funds in order to further her music career. Which is the true version, will of course be for the learned judge to determine.
However let's just look at their explanation. There is a secular world out there, especially in the US, where young people have turned away from God. The best way to reach to them is to do something they can identify with - pop music, and use that as the platform to spread your message of Christianity. And to do that, Ms Ho had to become a top singer like Katy Perry, Beyonce, Brittney Spears et al. Once she achieved this stardom, she would have a large following and use it to get her followers to turn to God. However it seems neither she nor her husband really did a full study whether this would ever work. Sure some people will imitate their idols and do similar things, but the large majority won't, they are just there to listen and enjoy the music. And even those who do imitate, won't keep doing this forever, they would change when a newer and perhaps better singer-turned idol comes along.
Wildly popular and very beautiful Beyonce Knowles (a), resisted the temptation of tying her singing career with her faith, unlike Ms Ho.
So the whole idea that in order to win new converts, you had to be a rich and famous international star, just doesn't seem logical. Do I really need to go into the songs? I think by now everyone has heard it and realised how underwhelming they are and that's putting it mildly! Worse still is her attire in the music videos, it's really hard to draw a link from a skimpily dressed unheard off singer singing in a voice and tone that's hard to understand, and then connect it somehow with a message of salvation via Christianity. Even the Jamaican co-singers have very little connection with what young people in America listen to music wise. Maybe if she got into 'Black music' and procured some Afro-American singers, it might have at least appealed to the many who like 'Black music'. Instead she went Jamaican on us! It was not just an epic fail but a tragic one as well. And who's bright idea was it to go to the US? What's wrong with Singapore or Asia? Since CHC is based here, shouldn't the priority be to first spread the message here before embarking on career in the American music industry?
How does one link Sun Ho seen performing in this music video and Christianity is the $50 million question!
A reason or excuse would be to associate this with her career in Taiwan, HK and China, where she was supposedly very popular. The US was the natural progression or so it seems. Her performances in these Asian countries brings me to the 2nd point - they were so successful and won over many new converts to Christianity! In fact this was the very point another central figure in this saga, Hanafi Wahju inferred to in his testimony. He was happy to donate and fund this Crossover project, because it was a cheap and fruitful return. The millions spent to entice and cajole these new converts, was worth every cent, furthermore you can't really put a price on salvation. So what if there were millions spent, the end result of winning over new souls for salvation is priceless!
Indonesian businessman Hanafi Wahju (a) did not hesitate to fund Ms Ho's career, or did he actually fund it? That's a key question in the trial.
But let's look a bit deeper at how they arrive at these figures. It seems that they were quite presumptuous about this. It's like that 'old chestnut' used in politics - it's not how many votes you get, but who does the counting! So how did they count these 'votes of conversion'? Easy, just tally the number of concert and event goers at her gigs in these countries and count them in her favour. According to some figures I read on their webpage sometime back, it seems there were hundreds of thousands attendees in China, HK and the rest of Asia and maybe a million or more in Taiwan, throughout her singing career in these countries.
A poster of Ms Ho's concert in Shanghai. Had she focused her career in the Far East, she might have had a greater impact, and certainly this case would have never arisen.
But how accurate are they? Perhaps there were some who were really overcome by divine intervention at her concerts and because of it, turned to Christianity, but I'm certain the majority were not swayed. And don't forget a number of them would be repeat attendees, yet were counted as new. And then you would already have Christians from other denominations that attended these events, yet they would also be counted as new converts. Strictly speaking as long as you follow a certain denomination in Christianity, it's considered that you are 'saved', but some churches do not accept this, they insist that one must only follow their teachings in order to be considered saved. So a 'saved Christian' who church hops, is always considered a new convert by that church.
This Biblical verse in a nutshell explains the basic tenet of Christianity, however it seems to CHC it's not enough unless you follow their lead on this.
Then let's not forget that many would also just be caught up in the moment at the concert, they could be coerced to saying yes by an over-zealous volunteer, or just simply answer so, when asked in order to get out of a sticky situation. How many actually continued to follow CHC and her affiliates after saying yes? I think if you go into the details and add all of them up, you'll find the figures very much lower than what was proclaimed by CHC. Still you gotta credit CHC and Kong Hee in particular, they really did a very good PR job in projecting a very positive image over a long period of time. Even now, despite the sordid details coming out, both in and out of court (by former church members), he still enjoys the support of the majority of his flock.
Kong Hee and his wife, Sun Ho, making their way to the Subordinate Court for his trial.
Anyway back to the original point of this post - what are the odds in relation to the final verdict of this case. Please note this is purely recreational and in no way am I encouraging anyone to wager on them.
1) Kong Hee (KH) acquitted on all charges - 15-1 (someone else carries the can or insufficient evidence)
2) KH guilty on at least 1, acquitted of the rest -7-4
3) KH guilty on 2 counts, acquitted on the remainder 4-9
4) KH guilty on all counts - 4-1
Initially when he was first charged, I thought KH would escape the charges because some other defendant would 'carry the can' and avoid sending him to jail. However as the trial progresses it seems all the defendants are sticking to their guns and maintaining their innocence. Therefore it would fall on them to rebut the prosecution's case and raise a reasonable doubt. As such, I've lengthened the odds on a total acquittal based on what I've seen thus far of the trial. Obviously things can change rapidly, and his odds could shorten if more and more favourable evidence emerges. Next is the possible sentences if he's found guilty (this obviously depends on how many counts he's convicted on):
1) 5 years jail or less - 15-1 (likely conviction on just 1 count)
2) Over 5 years and up to 7 years - 8-1 (could be 1 conviction or 2)
3) Over 7 years and up to 10 years - 3-1 (likely 2 convictions)
4) Over 10 years and up to 13 years - 9-5 (2 or more convictions)
5) Any sentence above 13 years - 7-1 (guilty on all counts)
Obviously this is guesswork but it's based on sentences for some offenders involved in cheating with sums running into several millions. However it'll fall to Senior District Judge See Kee Onn who's hearing the case to decide what weight he would place on any conviction and what degree of culpability he deems KH to be involved in if he finds him guilty. It's also quite fortunate for KH that he got Judge See as the trial judge. Judge See is among the fairest judges on the Bench. If KH cannot convince him to prescribe a lesser sentence, I think it'll be quite hard for him in any appeal to reduce the sentence. Obviously he might still be acquitted and make that point moot.
Senior District Judge See Kee Onn (back row 2nd from right) alone will determine Kong Hee's fate, irrespective of what's been said outside court.
So that's it for now for my prediction on where this might end up in. There's still a long way to go, and the odds could so easily change. Furthermore even if it does, it cannot be a true barometer because I'm basing it solely on what's being revealed in the press and elsewhere. Moreover there's only 1 person who's best placed to decide the outcome, and that's Judge See. We can talk and guess, but Judge See alone after hearing both sides and the evidence adduced that will determine KH's fate, one way or the other.
Sir Nelspruit
*The writer bogs at http://anyhowhantam.blogspot.sg/